Services

Forecasts basically agree that in 2008, the Hungarian economy will start to increase, but in very little steps. The internal and external equilibrium will become noticeably stronger, but the real earnings will be only slightly higher. The inflation is to abate slowly as well.

The growth will be lower than that of the rest of the new EU member states. The increasing domestic demand (which is generated predominantly by investments) partially counterbalances the decreasing export demand. The main driving factor of the economic growth is still the industry which is to be stronger with 5-6% by the end of 2008. Business services also can count on relatively favorable circumstances this year. The transport sector will probably expand slower than in the last year. The transit shipments grew very fast mainly because of the EU accession of Romania and Bulgaria, but currently this sector cannot expect such advantageous events. The agricultural production has to increase – due to the bad weather conditions in 2007 we can reasonably expect better for 2008. Heightened agricultural production will also increase the domestic demand. The financial sector faces new market possibilities because of the co-financing of the EU projects (Hungary starts using considerable EU funds in 2008).

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Export remains one of the most important motors of the economy, but it will lose some of its dynamism due to the narrowing of the European business opportunities. The vast majority of our export is targeted to the EU. On the other hand, the import will be kept on level by the intensifying investments. The deficit of the current account remains approximately the same – about 5 billion euros.

Nominal income is also expected to increase slower than in the last year. The growth of gross earnings will be 8% in the business sector and 7% in the public sector. Real wages will grow by 0.5-1%.

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